Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."